Editor's Choice

Tuesday, 11 Dec 2018
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Nothing Terribly Wrong

I run a fund. The recent 13.2% fall in the ASX 200 has caused us all to do some hard thinking. You have to decide, is this the start of a long bear market, or is it an opportunity? Whilst clearly talking my own book as a fund manager, I find myself concluding that it is more of an opportunity than a disaster, because there is nothing terribly wrong. Here is a list of some of the major market concerns and my interpretation of their severity/importance:

  • Slowing US growth. US growth is clearly the main concern, or more accurately, the realisation that growth is not indefinite at 2018 levels - which has to be adjusted for in market pricing, but it is no catastrophe.
  • The yield curve in the US is inverting, a sign of slowing growth....Continue Reading

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