The Big One – What Happens If the Us Bond Market Breaks?

There’s a term you might hear in the finance world whispered with a mix of dread and disbelief – “the big one.”

It’s the scenario no one wants to talk about but everyone fears: a complete breakdown in confidence in the US bond market. Marcus explains how this could unfold – not through data or logic, but through something far more dangerous in markets: emotion.

If bond yields keep rising, as they did earlier this year when the 30-year US bond yield topped 5% – it could signal that the US government will need to pay more and more just to borrow money. With $37 trillion in debt, that becomes a massive problem fast.

Now imagine a situation where the crowd, the market, suddenly panics. A few people stop buying US bonds. Others notice. Then more stop. Suddenly, there’s a run on the bond market, and no one wants to lend the US money anymore unless they’re paid 10%, 15%, even 20%.

It’s highly unlikely… but if it happens, everything gets repriced. The US dollar craters. Global markets spiral. And, as Marcus puts it, maybe that’s how a 30-year-old finally buys a house in Brighton for $200k.

We’re not predicting it. We’re not acting on it. But we are watching.

Watch Marcus explain the full story below: