Proof Timing Beats Buy and Hold

One of the skill sets we’ve developed over the years has been to time the market.

We believe you should try and time the market. You can time the market. We’ve done it very successfully.

Anyone who remembers us back in the pandemic in 2020 will know we almost perfectly timed selling out and buying back in. We were running our SMAs. I sent an order through to cash everything out on February the 23rd, right at the top. Merrill Lynch rang me up and said, “You sure?”

It was unusual. Other people don’t do it. But we did, and we bought back in on March 24th, saving ourselves about a 20% drop.

Ever since then, we’ve been timing the market. Another great bit of timing was when we exited for 120 days, saving ourselves 8% underperformance in the Australian market.

The most brilliant bit of timing was November 2023, when a Fed meeting told us we were over the inflation and interest rate problem. That was the trigger for the whole market. We went from 100% cash into 100% stocks in November 2023.

As you’ll know, we exited again during the tariff collapse this year. We sold out and bought back in, saving ourselves a few percent.

Timing can be done. We’ve been doing it successfully, and we will continue to do that.