Stock Market Analysis 1: The Stock Picker
OTHER PEOPLE’S PORTFOLIOS
I have been developing something I have called a PORTFOLIO SNAPSHOT. It is a business in the development stage – I have developed it in response to a need for a our financial planning side and have been experimenting with a few member portfolios.
The idea is to provide a factual snapshot of a client’s portfolio, including objective commentary, and the result is a fabulous tool for a financial advisor that enables them to walk into a client review and talk to a client about their investments.
It has been a fascinating process seeing some of your portfolios and doing assessments, every portfolio tells a story, and as this portfolio snapshot assessment tool progresses it is clear that apart from the value it delivers to an advisor and his client, we have the opportunity to show Marcus Today Members, with the permission of the Members who own the portfolios, what other people are doing and, even more valuable, what I think about what they are doing. It allows you to see what other people are doing and allows you to put them and your own investment style in perspective. You may think what you are doing is normal, but from the portfolios I have seen so far, everyone is doing something different and there is no ‘normal’.
So here is the first SNAPSHOT with commentary. We have a few of these lined up for you, hopefully you will find them fascinating and educational.
Note to financial planners and Members
If you can think of some way to improve this SNAPSHOT – something else you would like included, something that would add value to the assessment, please contact me – especially if you are a financial planner – imagine going into a meeting with a client to talk about their investments…what would you need or like to see in this report. Please EMAIL ME HERE
PORTFOLIO SNAPSHOT No. 1 – “The Successful Stock Picker”
- This is a high-risk speculative stock picking portfolio.
- Evidence that the stock picking has worked but this approach will only work in a bull market.
- The Weekly ATR is a massive 9.45% a week – in other words this portfolio has been moving 9.4% from top to bottom each week on average for the past 14 weeks. An ASX 200 matching ETF index would move 1.8%.
- Half the gains have come from one stock (A2M).
- 37% is invested in ‘punts’ – stocks with a market cap below $1bn. 12 out of 25 stocks have a market cap below $1bn.
- Sector weightings do not bear any correlation to the All Ords sector weightings.
- The yield on the portfolio is immaterial at 0.78% including just 25% average franking across the portfolio.
- Because it is invested in a lot of illiquid small growth stocks this portfolio will get badly hurt in a downturn.
- Most portfolios we look at have other asset classes (Managed Funds, LICs, ETFs, International shares, Hybrids). This is invested in one asset class, a volatile asset class (Australian Equities). As such it needs constant management and is not ‘sleep at night’. Many retirees like a quiet life with income – this is a fireworks portfolio; it will not provide income or a quiet life.
Bottom line: This is a risky stock picking portfolio. Very hands on. Requires constant vigilance. No yield. Not a long-term portfolio.
In these charts the blue column is the portfolio weighting and the stocks are listed from left to right in market capitalisation order (so biggest stocks on the left). The first chart shows yield, the second chart shows risk:
- This Snapshot contains facts not opinions
- If you find errors please tell us and we will re-issue the tables
- Tables mostly in market capitalisation order
This portfolio snapshot is a factual analysis of the holdings submitted. The stock market is dynamic and it should be noted that this snapshot is simply a moment in time. Whilst we hope it provides useful insight, it is not advice and it is not intended as so. Marcus Today has not and cannot take into account your personal financial circumstances, and we cannot provide specific recommendations about any holdings or any portfolio strategy. If you wish to receive personal advice, you should speak to your financial planner or advisor.
Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and validity of the data herein, Marcus Today provides no guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information and does not accept any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) from errors or omissions. Marcus Today Pty Ltd, or their directors, employees or agents do not guarantee the performance of, or the repayment of capital or income invested based on any information herein. Please note that most of this data is based on forecasts, which have been provided by a third-party data service provider and can be badly wrong. The snapshot has been prepared on a best endeavours basis and Marcus Today has done all it reasonably can in the circumstances to achieve the desired outcome but no more.
If you do uncover any errors in the information provided (and the experience is that with so many forecasts and formulas there can be a few), please let us know and we can correct (if possible) and re-issue the snapshot.