Great Returns
![Tennis Player Gael Monfils Returns Serve](https://marcustoday.com.au/member/webpages/images/report/20191129/image(51).png)
![Average compound returns per annum from All Ords index no franking over 40 years](https://marcustoday.com.au/member/webpages/images/report/20190718/image(16).png)
- ALL ORDS compounding capital return is approximately 5.0%pa.
- ALL ORDS return from compounded dividends is approximately 4.5%pa.
- ALL ORDS return from compounded dividends plus franking is approximately 5.89%pa.
- ALL ORDS total return including compounded dividends is approximately 9.5%pa.
- ALL ORDS total return including compounded dividends plus franking is approximately 10.89%pa.
10.89% per annum including franking is a pretty good return. If that is correct then you double your money every seven years, triple it every 11 years, quadruple it every 14 years and 10x it every 23 years. Not sure what good this history lesson does you because the future is not the past, but it’s a number we might all (particularly the set and forget retirees) have in the back of their heads as a mild long-term expectation.
But before you assume that you need to understand that the annual return you will get per annum over your particular investment time period, be it one year, five years, 10 years or 20 years, will be five, 10 or 20 individual unpredictable one year returns that could be anything within the historical range of 12-month returns in the last 40 years which range between +86.1% to minus 41.7% a year and, on that basis, your investment experience will not be average.
This chart of the All Ordinaries total return index since inception in 1979 also makes it clear that timing is everything. You cannot rely on an average return unless you can shut your eyes to periods of utter disaster as well as periods of irrational exuberance, because the average includes both. Your job as a stock-market watcher and Marcus Today reader is to do better than have blind faith in the long-term, your job is to participate in the good times and, more than anything else, do whatever you can to avoid the significant downturns and by doing so save yourself both money and time.
- The arithmetic average of 564 rolling 12 month total returns since 1979 (one a month) is 12.28%.
- The highest 12 month return was 86.1%.
- The lowest 12 month return was minus 41.7%.
- 99 (18%) of the 12 month returns were negative.
- 465 (82%) of the 12 month returns were positive.
![Monthly average of All Ordinaries index return since 1979](https://marcustoday.com.au/member/webpages/images/report/20190719/image(46).png)
- The highest one month return was 17.43% return in a month.
- The lowest one month return was a 42.13% drop in a month in October 1987.
- The next lowest one month return was a 14.3% drop in a month.
- 63.5% of one month returns were positive.
- 36.5% of one month returns were negative.
- The average one month return is 1.02%.
- The best months are April, July, December.
- The worst month is June - the only month to see a negative average return including dividends.
- If it wasn't for dividends September, October and November would see negative returns.
- The three months ahead of Christmas are a market flat spot before the December rally.
- The most dividends come in March ands September (results seasons) although the biggest come from the banks which go ex in November and May.
![Seasonality chart all ordinaries index since 1979 compared to so far this year 2019](https://marcustoday.com.au/member/webpages/images/report/20190719/image(55).png)