We are starting to buy
WE ARE STARTING TO BUY
This is not optimsim, this is being less negative.
Its a very busy morning for us, we have decided to reduce our massive cash position of 70%. We are taking it down to 40%. Bit short but I wanted to get the main message to you before the market opened.
As one fund manager writes, we are not demi-Gods and "we don’t know", but we have to make decisions on experience that others can't make, or don't have the experience to make. Timing the bottom is not going to be possible using science or fundamentals (which are all over the place anyway), it is going to take 'feel'. We have that feeling and are going to do something about it.
What we know is this:
- This is a view that the market has over-reacted – it is not about virus cases….which are still going exponential.
- This is fear of missing out on a very sharp market rally.
- We are of the view that in hindsight coronavirus will prove to be a historic stock market buying opportunity.
- We have a LOT of cash.
- We are not going to able to call the ‘moment’ this bottoms.
- We are going to have to progressively buy.
- The central banks have made sure that when the "All Clear" sounds the market and each economy is on steroids.
- With so many fund managers stating that this is an opportunity, the bounce when it comes will rapidly leave us behind.
- The stock market is going to be led by the experiences of Italy, the UK and the US and will anticipate the recovery well in advance of the population's recovery.
- Price – The market is down 38% and some of the banks are down 56%, more than they fell in the GFC, in just a month. The market is pricing in an economic catastrophe that hasn't happened, the central banks are doing everything to prevent, and could miraculously come to an end as fast as it began. Investors have decided this chapter will destroy 40% of the stock market's value. They do not have evidence of that yet. It may prove to be, and we can sell again if it continues to unfold, but we see these prices are opportunity enough for us to at least reduce our cash bet.
- We have to buy when others are fearful.
- The Italian market, some European markets and some of our large stocks are losing their downside momentum and there are even some early buy signals on some technical indicators.
- If the US stops playing politics and fires its bazooka the market could potentially bottom, and soon.
- The Chinese are over it. One sign that Italian numbers are slowing will turn sentiment on its head.
Our Members, and the investors in our fund, expect us to do things they can’t or won't do, like having the balls to buy when all around us are losing their heads. Peak negativity will only be obvious in hindsight, you can never tell when you are in the teeth of the storm, but we are definitely in a storm now. It may not be peak negativity but there is a LOT of negativity at the moment.
Technically there are some mild signs of bottoming – a technical analyst would tell us this is a premature move, and I know that, but if you hold 70% cash, going to 40% is not so much optimism, as being less negative. We are being less negative.
Chris is doing the Marcus Today newsletter portfolios – in the SMA are coming up to weight in banks and BHP. Buying MQG, MFG and Healthcare stocks. We have not touched the REIT or Energy sector yet (the two worst performing sectors) but looking to time the oil price recovery. We are not brave enought to buy the mid-cap growth stocks yet.
There's no rush. We're early I know that, but maybe not.
THE MARKETS SO FAR