BUY HOLD SELL – Redbubble Group (ASX: RBL)
Please note this article contains general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances. Any discussion of past performance is not to be considered a reliable indicator of future performance. Founded in 2006, Redbubble Group (ASX: RBL) owns and operates online marketplaces redbubble.com and teepublic.com. It manages an ecosystem of creatives selling designs on everyday products like t-shirts, stationary, bags and wall art. It has a network of 37 fulfillers across 10 countries and 41 locations, and it fulfils products close to customers, keeping shipping timelines and costs competitive. In FY20, fulfilment capacity was added in Europe, Canada and the United States. The US accounts for almost 70% of its revenue. I had even used the website before without realising, purchasing several wall prints as birthday gifts for friends. From memory, it was seamless and simple to use. Also slightly addictive, in the same way Instagram and Facebook are. You just keep on scrolling past designs you like and before too long, it has been an hour. But that could just be a millennial thing. An obvious example of a company that has benefited from the shift to online retail and the work from home transformation. In March, there was a modest slowdown in sales as consumer uncertainty took hold, but sales bounced back in April as people began self-isolating at home and turning to online shopping and discovery. Full-year results pleased the market with the stock up 2.3% on the day, despite reporting a loss of $8.8m vs consensus -$1.9m. Revenue was up 36% to $416m. Adjusted EBITDA was up 141% to $15.3m vs consensus $10.2m. Operating expenses for the year were $79.3m, including a one-off $2.2m provision for restructuring announced back in June. Cost savings of $5.6m per year are expected to flow from the changes. 6.8 million unique customers, up 30% vs year ago with repeat sales accounting for 40% of marketplace revenue. FY21 has started strongly with July marketplace revenue growth of 132% and similar sales levels in the first two weeks of August. Founder and interim chief executive Martin Hosking observing the crisis has been beneficial for players with a good online presence. Hosking is also no novice at navigating black swan events, having listed his former business, LookSmart, at the height of the dotcom boom and successfully managing RBL through the GFC before it listed in 2016. Main Observations:
- This financial year is a major inflection point for the company. ROE is expected to turn positive, from -13.4% to 8.6% for the first time. An impressive milestone for a relatively new business (listed mid-2016). Forecast to lift to 9.8% and then 20.8% in FY2 and FY3 respectively.
- Revenue and EPS growth are both very strong. Up 36% and 75% respectively in the last financial year. EPS growth anticipated to be greater than revenue growth for most of the foreseeable future. Cost savings and a high level of recurring revenue helping. EPS growth in FY4 forecast to be down 51% however. It is important to remember that these ARE forecasts, and the further out they are, the more their accuracy comes into question.
- A PE of 40.9x isn’t what you’d call cheap, expected to fall to 35.7x in FY2. Other online retail websites like KGN sit on 42.9x. So, it’s in the right ballpark.
- All of the brokers surveyed by Thomson Reuters have a BUY or STRONG BUY recommendation. Not very often you see that.
- It’s trading at a 12.6% discount to the average broker target and a 73.9% discount to intrinsic value.