Wet Weather Crops

Wheat SeedsA member sent me a report a couple of days ago. He thought some of our other members might find it interesting as it holds some value for investors. I had a look over it and realised it fit almost perfectly with what I spoke about on Wednesday in relation to the adverse impacts of the extreme weather events we’re experiencing in Australia. Three miners cited lower coal production due to heavy rainfall in their quarterly updates – you can read more on that HERE. The report that was sent to me is a 2022/2023 Harvest Outlook for wheat in Australia. Here are the key points:
  • The area of wheat crops is less than 3.6 million hectares – more than a 3% decrease on last year.
  • The decrease took place mainly in Southern Queensland and Northern New South Wales. Some farmers have replanted crops 3 three times, and others have completely abandoned crops due to wet weather conditions.
  •  A third straight La Niña event – supposedly a once every-30 years weather event – has led to wet conditions across most eastern states.
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  Rainfall Totals Map Australia
  • Many areas have been flooded, which has seen entire crops submerged.
  • The wet conditions have impacted crop quality and reduced protein levels.
  • Southern Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria are facing volume and quality downgrades.
  • Low protein wheat pricing is significantly higher than last year’s high protein prices.

ASX Wheat to ASW Spread
  • All flours are expected to experience a significant price increase. There is that inflation.
  • Other factors that will contribute to sustained prices include higher fuel and fertiliser prices, supply chain disruptions, and international export restrictions imposed by some countries.
  • Prices are expected to remain elevated in 2022-23, due to the tight global supply and the continued uncertainty surrounding production in Ukraine.

Wheat Producers

GrainCorp (GNC) GNC Chart
Elders (ELD) ELD Chart
Over the past two years, the wheat price and performance of both Elders (ELD) and GrainCorp (GNC), have followed basically the same trajectory. The current weather patterns and subsequent adverse impacts on crops is presenting another opportunity.  


To read the conclusion and to get access to more market commentary, sign up for a free trial now and become a better investor.     Layton Membrey More about the author – Layton Membrey Layton Membrey has been working with the Marcus Today newsletter since 2021. He is currently undertaking a Master of Commerce specialising in Finance at Deakin University, which he will complete in 2023. Layton has quickly accumulated knowledge from Marcus and Henry, enabling him to develop his own investment style. MT Logo Founded in 1998, Marcus Today Stock Market Newsletter is a business that has built a community of like-minded investors who want to survive and thrive in the stock market. We achieve that through a combination of daily stock market education, ideas and activities.

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