Wet Weather CropsA member sent me a report a couple of days ago. He thought some of our other members might find it interesting as it holds some value for investors. I had a look over it and realised it fit almost perfectly with what I spoke about on Wednesday in relation to the adverse impacts of the extreme weather events we’re experiencing in Australia. Three miners cited lower coal production due to heavy rainfall in their quarterly updates – you can read more on that HERE. The report that was sent to me is a 2022/2023 Harvest Outlook for wheat in Australia. Here are the key points:
- The area of wheat crops is less than 3.6 million hectares – more than a 3% decrease on last year.
- The decrease took place mainly in Southern Queensland and Northern New South Wales. Some farmers have replanted crops 3 three times, and others have completely abandoned crops due to wet weather conditions.
- A third straight La Niña event – supposedly a once every-30 years weather event – has led to wet conditions across most eastern states.
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- Many areas have been flooded, which has seen entire crops submerged.
- The wet conditions have impacted crop quality and reduced protein levels.
- Southern Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria are facing volume and quality downgrades.
- Low protein wheat pricing is significantly higher than last year’s high protein prices.
- All flours are expected to experience a significant price increase. There is that inflation.
- Other factors that will contribute to sustained prices include higher fuel and fertiliser prices, supply chain disruptions, and international export restrictions imposed by some countries.
- Prices are expected to remain elevated in 2022-23, due to the tight global supply and the continued uncertainty surrounding production in Ukraine.
Wheat ProducersGrainCorp (GNC)
Over the past two years, the wheat price and performance of both Elders (ELD) and GrainCorp (GNC), have followed basically the same trajectory. The current weather patterns and subsequent adverse impacts on crops is presenting another opportunity.