Time the market with the LSX mining clock

A look at how Hedley Widdup and LSX use the ‘mining clock’ to time the market during key turns in the mining cycle.

If you don’t know the name Hedley Widdup, I’m going to assume you’re not interested in mining. Why so? Because Hedley’s become the go-to authority on junior mining in Australia. And rightly so. He’s the Chief Investment Officer of Lion Selection Group (ASX: LSX), a resource fund that’s been on the ASX for 29 years.

Why do you care? Hedley and the wider LSX team believe that 2025 will mark an auspicious occasion for this country: the year the next mining boom begins. That might sound strange. All we seem to hear about these days is AI. But for those attuned to the cyclical nature of the resource sector, now’s the time to be positioning for the next big upswing. Mining goes from boom to bust and back again. Timing matters.

Understanding the mining cycle

I can speak from experience here. I saw Hedley present in 2022 at a resource conference on the Gold Coast. His unlucky job was to tell the crowd what they didn’t want to hear. The mining cycle was peaking back then. Related shares proceeded to collapse between 30–80% over 2022 and 2023, depending on the company. Just ask anyone who came in late to the battery metal boom. I know. I saw it happen in real time.

You see… Lion’s guiding light in the opaque world of resources is their ‘mining clock’. It’s a measure of liquidity and repeatable signs that each mining cycle exhibits like… well… clockwork. Here’s the point above all: timing the mining cycle is THE MOST ESSENTIAL THING in resource investing. Everything else is secondary to this consideration.

What drives the mining clock

Buying at or near the top is a recipe for a shellacking. Buying at or near the bottom can lead to superb long-term gains. The problem is knowing where you might be, because the market never makes it obvious or easy. That’s where the clock comes in.

You can see the latest version, as far as Lion is concerned, below.

Hedley tells us that liquidity drives the mining cycle – and hence the clock. That’s money moving in and out of the sector based on real-world fundamentals. When commodity prices rise, money comes in. When they fall, it goes out.

We don’t have to look far to see why investors are suddenly getting more interested in resources: gold and silver are booming in 2025. Rare earths are now the world’s most strategic asset. And whoever has the cheapest energy is going to win the AI race. Oh, by the way, the world has been underinvesting in new supply for 15 years. Investors have been too busy chasing growth stocks in the US to care about the lack of new tin mines lately.

Why timing still matters

There are those in the financial world who say you can’t time the market. LSX would beg to differ. They were in cash for the 2022 and 2023 mining wipeout. That’s quite a brave call from a resource fund whose very job is to be invested in resource companies. It takes a supportive shareholder base for starters. Kudos to them. They are now buying projects 70% off the high. The market likes it too. LSX is up 68% in 2025.

I’m not telling you to buy LSX or even resources. Today is just an illustration that the market can be timed at opportune times. LSX is proving it as we speak. We like to think that we’ve done the same thing here at Marcus Today.

We cashed out of the market for our Growth Portfolio on October 13, a good chunk recommended after buying the April low in the market. Members now have the option of acquiring some of those same (high-quality) names 20% off the high.

We can’t guarantee to always get it right. But know for certain we’ll never say it can’t be done.