Summary of changes

We have cut our fair value for Anthropic by about 8% and moved our view from “Fully priced” to “Overpriced”. The amended S-1 lodged on 2 November confirmed September-quarter revenue of US$17.0bn, but showed growth halving to 47%, a swing back to a US$567m operating loss and US$895bn of compute and infrastructure commitments – more than three times the figure we used a week ago. At the same time, OpenAI’s round was cut to US$1.25 trillion and the FT reported Anthropic may not get an investment-grade rating. Institutions are pushing for US$1.5–1.6 trillion, which now sits above our range rather than at the top of it.

What has not changed: the High risk rating, the Growth IPO type, listing targeted for the week of 16 November, no price range or share count yet, the 50.1% founder vote, and our point that the business is real and improving – it is the price that is the problem.

General information only – not personal advice. See marcustoday.com.au/terms-conditions.

Marcus Today straight talk

The September quarter confirms the slowdown – and shows the bill. Anthropic’s amended S-1 puts September-quarter revenue at US$17.0bn, up 47% on the June quarter and about 12 times a year earlier. That is still extraordinary. But growth has more than halved from 144%, about US$600m of revenue went in price cuts, and the business swung from a US$974m operating profit to a US$567m operating loss as it bought expensive short-term compute. The filing also shows US$895bn of compute and infrastructure commitments – far more than the US$245bn minimum reported a week earlier. Institutions are now pushing for US$1.5–1.6 trillion, or 22–24 times the September-quarter run-rate, against 9–17 times trailing sales for Alphabet, Microsoft and Nvidia. We have cut our fair value to US$0.95–1.35 trillion, with a central estimate of about US$1.15 trillion. Please note: there is still no price range or share count. Australians will be able to apply through a local prospectus, but at the price being talked about we would not chase it. Expect the share price to be very volatile after listing.

In brief

Anthropic, maker of the Claude AI models, filed an amended S-1 with the US SEC on 2 November, adding September-quarter results. It plans to list on the Nasdaq Global Select Market as ANT, led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, with trading targeted for the week of 16 November. Reports put the raise at US$100bn or more – the largest IPO on record. The last private round, in May, valued it at US$965bn. Nine-month revenue was US$33.2bn. The roughly US$104bn nine-month net loss is mostly non-cash charges on convertible notes and SAFEs that convert to shares at listing. The offer will be open to Australians through a separate Australian prospectus, with CommSec expected to lead.

We estimate fair value at US$0.95–1.35 trillion, with a central estimate of about US$1.15 trillion and a probability-weighted value of about US$1.2 trillion – down from US$1.0–1.5 trillion and US$1.25 trillion a week ago. At the US$1.5–1.6 trillion institutions are pushing for, the float would price 11–19% above the top of our range and 30–39% above our central estimate. The business is real and still growing fast, but the September quarter showed slower growth, thinner margins and a far larger commitment bill than we had assumed.

Key reasons

What would change the view?

A price range below about US$1.2 trillion, a December quarter showing the adjusted margin back above 19% as its own data centres replace short-term compute, and quarterly growth holding above 30% would make the IPO more attractive. Pricing above US$1.6 trillion, further price cuts, growth falling below 30% a quarter or an adverse ruling in the Department of War case would make it less so.

Anthropic is a five-year-old San Francisco AI lab that builds the Claude family of models and sells access to businesses, developers and consumers. Most revenue is consumption-based – customers pay for the computing their requests use – sold directly or through the Amazon, Google and Microsoft cloud marketplaces. It trains and runs its models on Amazon Trainium, Google TPU, Nvidia and AMD chips, and is building its own capacity (“Anthropic Direct”). Revenue was US$41m in 2023, US$386m in 2024, US$4.6bn in 2025 and US$33.2bn in the first nine months of 2026. Its private valuation has gone from US$61.5bn in March 2025 to US$965bn in May 2026.

At US$1.5–1.6 trillion, the IPO would sit above our fair value range

Equity value in US$ trillion. Bear, bull and fair value are our estimates. IPO and OpenAI figures are media reports. Scale: 0 to US$2.5tn.

Even at US$1.5 trillion, the valuation is up about 24-fold in 20 months

Post-money valuation in US$bn at each round. The IPO bar uses the low end of the valuation investors are pushing for. Scale: 0 to US$1,750bn.

Our AI Ownership Map estimates Amazon and Alphabet together hold roughly 30%. Amazon’s convertible notes become non-voting Class N shares at listing. Google reportedly has an option to buy up to US$10bn of Class N stock at the IPO price.

Anthropic sells intelligence by the token. Revenue grew about 12-fold in a year. Compute and infrastructure charges were US$9.9bn in the September quarter – about 58% of revenue, up from 55% in the first half. The catch is that it has bought its capacity years in advance, and in the September quarter it had to top up with expensive short-term compute.

How it makes money. Most revenue is consumption fees from businesses and developers using Claude through its API and agent products, plus monthly subscriptions. Run-rate revenue is defined as 13 times trailing 28-day consumption fees plus 12 times monthly subscriptions.

Customers and channels. Amazon, Google and Microsoft marketplaces generated 48% of 1H26 revenue and 58% of net receivables. The top five customers were 21% of September-quarter revenue. Axios notes Anthropic books cloud-partner sales gross, which makes revenue look about 25% larger than OpenAI’s method.

Back to an operating loss – the question is whether short-term compute costs were a one-off

September-quarter figures from the amended S-1, as reported.

The net loss ends at listing when the notes and SAFEs convert, but the dilution begins. Watch the adjusted operating margin and compute cost as a share of revenue in the first reports as a listed company.

Three ways we triangulated value

All three methods were trimmed for weaker margins, a larger commitment bill and a lower OpenAI benchmark.

Scenarios against the US$1.5–1.6 trillion being talked about

What could hold the price up after listing. Scarcity – it is the first frontier AI lab to list, ahead of OpenAI. Index inclusion, a 15–20% retail allocation across six countries, and fund demand for pure AI exposure. Pre-IPO derivatives are pricing it at about US$1.7–1.9 trillion. None of that changes the fundamentals.

Firmus Grid pulled its roughly $44bn ASX float on 9 October after investors would not pay about 2.5 times the August round for capacity mostly still to be built and funded by about US$30bn of debt. See our Firmus Stock Take.

Anthropic has real revenue and US$146.6bn of liquidity. But the same questions apply, and the amended filing makes them sharper: the IPO talk is 55–66% above the last round, the commitment bill is now US$895bn, and the credit market is not yet treating it as investment grade. Our AI debt deep dive shows the strain sits with the lenders and landlords funding the build-out – and Anthropic’s commitments are a large part of the demand underwriting them.

General information only. This content does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider whether it is appropriate for you and read the relevant PDS or prospectus before acting. Valuations, scenarios and forecasts are possibilities, not guarantees. September-quarter figures are from the amended S-1 as reported by media and are unaudited. Australian investors can apply only under the Australian prospectus once it is lodged with ASIC.