Marcus Today straight talk

Priced for miracles. Revenue went from US$1.2bn in the first half of 2025 to US$16.3bn in the first half of 2026, and the business turned a US$974m operating profit in the June quarter. That is real. But the hype is already coming out of the price: IPO talk has slipped from US$2 trillion to about US$1.5 trillion in a week after September-quarter growth slowed to about 45%. At US$1.5 trillion you pay about 22 times the reported September-quarter run-rate, against 9–17 times trailing sales for Alphabet, Microsoft and Nvidia. Behind it sit US$245bn of minimum compute payments, half of revenue routed through its biggest shareholders, and no meaningful vote for public investors. At first impressions, our fair value is US$1.0–1.5 trillion, with a central estimate of about US$1.25 trillion. Please note: there is no price range or share count yet, and Australian investors cannot buy in the offer. Expect the share price to be very volatile after listing.

In brief

Anthropic, maker of the Claude AI models, lodged its preliminary S-1 with the US SEC on 26 October. It plans to list on the Nasdaq Global Select Market as ANT, led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, with trading targeted for the week of 16 November. Reports put the raise at US$100bn or more, which would be the largest IPO on record. The last private round, in May, valued it at US$965bn. First-half revenue was US$16.3bn. The US$80.7bn net loss is mostly a US$72.4bn non-cash charge on convertible notes and SAFEs that convert to shares at listing.

We estimate fair value at US$1.0–1.5 trillion, with a central estimate of about US$1.25 trillion and a probability-weighted value of about US$1.3 trillion. At the reported US$1.5 trillion the float would price at the top of our range. At the earlier US$2 trillion it would be well above it. The business is real and improving, but the price assumes the growth rate holds and margins keep widening while US$245bn of compute payments are locked in.

Key reasons

What would change the view?

A price range below about US$1.3 trillion, an audited September quarter confirming the reported run-rate, and a final prospectus showing commitments that scale with demand would make the IPO more attractive. A price above US$1.5 trillion, a further slowdown in quarterly growth, loss of cloud-partner share or an adverse Department of War ruling would make it less so.

Anthropic is a five-year-old San Francisco AI lab that builds the Claude family of models and sells access to businesses, developers and consumers. Most revenue is consumption-based – customers pay for the computing their requests use – sold directly or through the Amazon, Google and Microsoft cloud marketplaces. It trains and runs its models on Amazon Trainium, Google TPU, Nvidia and AMD chips. Revenue was US$41m in 2023, US$386m in 2024 and US$4.6bn in 2025. Its private valuation has gone from US$61.5bn in March 2025 to US$965bn in May 2026. It holds US$131.7bn in cash and short-term investments.

At about US$1.5 trillion, the IPO sits at the top of our range

Equity value in US$ trillion. Bear, bull and fair value are our estimates. IPO and OpenAI figures are media reports.

The valuation has risen about 24-fold in 19 months

Post-money valuation in US$bn at each round. The IPO bar uses the reported US$1.5 trillion.

Our AI Ownership Map estimates Amazon and Alphabet together hold roughly 30%. Amazon’s convertible notes become non-voting Class N shares at listing.

Anthropic sells intelligence by the token. Revenue grew about 14-fold in a year, and compute costs fell from 201% of revenue to 55%. The catch is that it has bought its capacity years in advance.

How it makes money

Most revenue is consumption fees from businesses and developers using Claude through its API and agent products, plus monthly subscriptions. Run-rate revenue is defined as 13 times trailing 28-day consumption fees plus 12 times monthly subscriptions.

Customers and channels

Cloud marketplaces – Amazon, Google and Microsoft generated 48% of 1H26 revenue and 58% of net receivables. Top five customers – about 25% of revenue in the first nine months; one was 11% of 1H26 revenue. Enterprise – more than half the Fortune 500 spend at least US$100k a year. Axios notes Anthropic books cloud-partner sales gross, which makes revenue look about 25% larger than OpenAI’s method.

Reuters and WION reporting on the S-1. Figures overlap and should not be added. Reuters puts future minimum payments at US$245bn plus about US$21bn of short-term agreements. The aggregate total is blank in the preliminary S-1.

Listed multiples are trailing revenue as at 26/10/2026 (Forbes). Anthropic and OpenAI multiples use run-rates on different dates and different revenue accounting, so they are a guide only. The listed giants have long histories of profit and cash flow. Anthropic has one profitable quarter.

Profitable on an operating basis – for one quarter. The question is whether margins keep widening as growth slows.

The net loss ends at listing when the notes and SAFEs convert, but the dilution begins. Watch operating margin and compute cost as a share of revenue in the first reports as a listed company.

What could hold the price up after listing

Scarcity – it is the first frontier AI lab to list, ahead of OpenAI. Index inclusion and fund demand for a pure AI exposure. Fortune notes some investors expect a market value as high as US$2.4 trillion once trading starts. None of that changes the fundamentals.

Firmus Grid pulled its roughly $44bn ASX float on 9 October and is reported to be exploring a US$3bn private round. Investors would not pay about 2.5 times the August round for capacity mostly still to be built and funded by about US$30bn of debt. See our Firmus Stock Take.

Anthropic has real revenue, an operating profit and US$131.7bn in cash. But the same questions apply: how far above the last round is the IPO, how much of the cost base is locked in, and who carries the risk if demand slows? Our AI debt deep dive shows the strain sits with the lenders and landlords funding the build-out. Anthropic’s commitments are a large part of the demand underwriting them.

General information only. This content does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider whether it is appropriate for you and read the relevant PDS or prospectus before acting. Valuations, scenarios and forecasts are possibilities, not guarantees. Third-quarter revenue is as reported by media and is not in the preliminary S-1. The offer is not available to Australian retail investors.