I am taking some profits today in the IDEAS PORTFOLIO and throwing in the towel on the BHP and MQG one stock portfolios for the moment. The sugar hit from the RBA pause is well and truly over. That didn’t last long. The ASX 200 was up 33 on the day of the pause, dropped 26 yesterday and the futures are down 37 today.

Blood on the streets on ASX 200 today, closingdown 90 points to 7163 (-1.2%), as investors exercised caution after the FOMC meeting minutes.

US stocks closed lower overnight as the market digests the latest FOMC meeting minutes, trade barriers from China and oil output cuts from OPEC+.

ASX futures down 12 points or 0.17% to 7233 near 7am AEST. Global stock market trading was light overnight, US markets closed for Independence Day.

Yesterday’s RBA rate pause could have been a mistake. Coming into focus now is the quarterly CPI number on July 26. Everyone seems to have forgotten the March quarter number (7%) and the June quarter number is still going to be 6% plus, which is still well above the RBA’s target.

ASX 200 closed down 26 points to 7253 (-0.4%), letting go of yesterday’s gains, snapping a three-day advance.

Wall Street closes higher overnight in a holiday-shortened session kicking off the second half of the year on a positive note.

RBA – Nobody knows is the answer to the question. Will they or won’t they? The lower-than-expected CPI number last week suggests a good chance that they will pause rates, but almost all the strategists are saying the same thing, inflation is too high, and even if they do pause now, they will have to raise rates if not three times more. If they do pause, I think it’ll be good for the market, whatever the strategists are saying. And hopefully, it will extend this consumer discretionary rally for us. We have three retailers in our IDEAS PORTFOLIO.