Reporting Season Calendar February 2021
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It’s Technology Stupid
The top 5 stocks in the S&P 500 account for 27% of the index. Year to date, which includes the coronavirus they are up: Apple +30.5% Microsoft +35.7% Amazon +66.7% Google +11.9% Facebook +18.7% Other top performers in the S&P 500 top 20 include: Tesla +226% NVIDIA +73.8% Netflix +55.3% Adobe +38.7% Paypal +67.8% Other…
Bank Sector Ressurection
The Banks have over-provided for an Armageddon economic outcome that was based on over-cautious medical advice – The Australian bank sector has risen 14.13% in three days as it wakes up to the realisation that the economic recovery is coming faster than expected meaning GDP forecasts are too low (brokers are upgrading GDP forecasts), bank sector earnings…
How to Play the Recovery Trade
HAIR ON FIRE IN THE US – HOW TO PLAY THE RECOVERY TRADE The hopes for a vaccine have sent the Dow up 911 or 3.85% overnight. The S&P 500 was up 3.15%. The UK up 4.29%. The German market up 5.67%. The French market up 5.16%. The oil price up 8.12%. BHP and RIO…
Into the Relapse Zone
AN INTERESTING THOUGHT Into the Relapse Zone – We are coming into the “Relapse Zone”, the period after restrictions are lifted – in particular, the market is interested in the experience in the US and UK. The world is watching to see if they have lifted lockdowns too quickly (as looks likely). You can track…
Are we back in a bubble?
The ASX 200 recovered a 101 point fall to close up 19 yesterday. An Australian win on a Government bond issue (see below) helped the turnaround. But we will be tested today. That's two days of the US market falling 2% a day. Corrections start fast. Momentum fading. This is the ASX 200 chart –…
A Rant
A RANT Got caught on the ABC Radio Adelaide this morning. They were talking about the boom in online broking accounts that CommSec are reporting and ASIC is warning about (being conservative is their job). Of course there’s been a boom, everyone’s looking for something to do in isolation plus we are in the middle…
We need to get through this ‘quantification’ period before getting optimistic
STRATEGY SUMMARY Short term period of sober assessment to get through – As you know we have gone to 15-20% cash in our SMAs. That is basically us taking a negative view of the market in the short term (wrong today!). We think this ultra-fast sentiment recovery has probably run its course and is going…
If you are perpetually timid you doom yourself to under-performance
The Marcus Today Growth SMA has outperformed its very demanding ASX 300 Accumulation benchmark by 20% in just over a month courtesy of a 70% plus cash holding. Well done us, but that’s not the point. The point is that having reduced cash from 70% to 40% yesterday, this morning we are (almost) “All in”.…
