THE RESULTS SEASON – A SURVIVAL GUIDE We are into the results season and these days, for equity investors, the results month is like being on a battlefield during an artillery barrage wearing fluoro orange. You never quite know when you’re going to get blown up. We are into the results season and these days,…
The top 5 stocks in the S&P 500 account for 27% of the index. Year to date, which includes the coronavirus they are up: Apple +30.5% Microsoft +35.7% Amazon +66.7% Google +11.9% Facebook +18.7% Other top performers in the S&P 500 top 20 include: Tesla +226% NVIDIA +73.8% Netflix +55.3% Adobe +38.7% Paypal +67.8% Other…
Rising case numbers in the US don’t seem to be upsetting the markets. No-one seems to care in the US. One colleague got a text from a cousin in Washington DC yesterday saying that “everyone is just getting back to normal and they’ll handle the virus if they get it”. Here we are in Victoria…
Paul Volcker was the Federal Reserve chairman before Greenspan. He was appointed by Jimmy Carter in 1979 and served as the US central bank’s chairman until 1987. Volcker was the man who, in an inflation obsessed era (the 1980’s), worked out that reacting to a rise in inflation didn’t work, and that central banks had to…
The FOMC has cut interest rates overnight (the first inter-meeting cut since 2008), the RBA cut rates yesterday and the rest of the World’s Central Banks are doubtless preparing to cut interest rates sometime soon – because of the coronavirus. Read the RBA statement and there was no cut and paste this time – nine mentions of…
WHICH STOCKS WILL DISAPPOINT WITH RESULTS (AND WHICH WON’T) We’ve had profit warnings from IAG, DOW, CIM, NHF, NUF, SUL, KGN and now TWE. The confession season is in full flight. Time for this perennial article – rules for the results season and a look at which stocks and sectors are most at risk over…
We have looked through the details of the Phase One trade deal and despite spending last year exasperated by the unwelcome uncertainty and volatility that trade ‘news’ and Trump’s delivery of it caused, the conclusion from reading the trade deal is that however badly/annoyingly Trump has handled the news flow (a more efficient President might…
Day three back at the desk – time for a round up of what to expect in 2020. US Central Bank policy was the biggest issue in 2019 and still is the biggest issue – Last year’s stellar performance from the bond and equity market was driven by the US Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot point…
The oil price is ticking up after the OPEC+ (OPEC plus Russia) meeting in early December, which saw Saudi Arabia push for the deepest production cuts in a decade. Oil up 2%. OPEC pumps 40% of the World’s oil. They increased production cuts by 500,000 barrels to 1.7m barrels a day – 372,000bpd by OPEC…
