It’s Technology Stupid

The top 5 stocks in the S&P 500 account for 27% of the index. Year to date, which includes the coronavirus they are up: Apple +30.5% Microsoft +35.7% Amazon +66.7% Google +11.9% Facebook +18.7% Other top performers in the S&P 500 top 20 include: Tesla +226% NVIDIA +73.8% Netflix +55.3% Adobe +38.7% Paypal +67.8% Other…

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Hotspots and Cold Spots

Rising case numbers in the US don’t seem to be upsetting the markets. No-one seems to care in the US. One colleague got a text from a cousin in Washington DC yesterday saying that “everyone is just getting back to normal and they’ll handle the virus if they get it”. Here we are in Victoria…

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Former head of the FOMC Paul Volker

We are on our own now

Paul Volcker was the Federal Reserve chairman before Greenspan. He was appointed by Jimmy Carter in 1979 and served as the US central bank’s chairman until 1987. Volcker was the man who, in an inflation obsessed era (the 1980’s), worked out that reacting to a rise in inflation didn’t work, and that central banks had to…

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United States Federal Reserve System

The Central Bank Bombe

The FOMC has cut interest rates overnight (the first inter-meeting cut since 2008), the RBA cut rates yesterday and the rest of the World’s Central Banks are doubtless preparing to cut interest rates sometime soon – because of the coronavirus. Read the RBA statement and there was no cut and paste this time – nine mentions of…

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Trump Not a Chump

We have looked through the details of the Phase One trade deal and despite spending last year exasperated by the unwelcome uncertainty and volatility that trade ‘news’ and Trump’s delivery of it caused, the conclusion from reading the trade deal is that however badly/annoyingly Trump has handled the news flow (a more efficient President might…

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2020 Market Call

Day three back at the desk – time for a round up of what to expect in 2020. US Central Bank policy was the biggest issue in 2019 and still is the biggest issue – Last year’s stellar performance from the bond and equity market was driven by the US Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot point…

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Oil fields affecting the oil price

Oil Price Correlations

The oil price is ticking up after the OPEC+ (OPEC plus Russia) meeting in early December, which saw Saudi Arabia push for the deepest production cuts in a decade. Oil up 2%. OPEC pumps 40% of the World’s oil. They increased production cuts by 500,000 barrels to 1.7m barrels a day – 372,000bpd by OPEC…

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